Nikolas Kozloff

As Latin America and the wider world seek to come to terms with the death of Hugo Chavez, many may wonder about the Venezuelan populist's political legacy.

In the immediate term, the deceased comandante's shadow will loom large over Venezuela's next snap presidential election which will be held on April 14. Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela's former Foreign Minister, will face off against Henrique Capriles Radonski, who previously challenged Chavez for the presidency and lost.

As I discussed on al-Jazeera English this evening [apparently no link available], the election may hinge on who can best come off as "Chavez-lite." Capriles is unlikely to question Chavez's adherence to social programs which redistributed wealth to the neediest. Indeed, while he served as Governor of the state of Miranda, Capriles actually emulated Chavez by adopting similar populist social programs himself. In this sense, Capriles is probably the most electable candidate to spring from the opposition, which was historically fractured and extremely fanatical. On the other hand, there is a great deal of sympathy for Chavez, and Maduro will benefit from his association with the Bolivarian Revolution. Even though Maduro lacks Chavez's charisma, he can bank on favorable blanket coverage from state-run media and support from Chavez's own PSUV political machine.

As I stated on al-Jazeera, my concern is that there will be very little space for a more radical discussion during this short-lived campaign. Though the candidates may disagree about foreign policy, they essentially agree on the overall contours of domestic social policy. Indeed, the fundamental psychological mindset of the Venezuelan poor has shifted so dramatically under Chavez that it is unlikely that any president, let alone a conservative one, would dare to turn back the clock and reintroduce the kinds of market reforms which characterized political life during the 1990s.

With no substantial disagreements on the social front, the campaign may center upon other issues such as urban crime. But while frightening homicides in Caracas and other cities are certainly important, such concerns pale beside the larger question of the Bolivarian Revolution and radical transformation of political life. What of the economic cooperatives, communal councils, ALBA and alternative currencies? These are all measures which serve to reconfigure fundamental power relations, and though some programs have been linked to cronyism and corruption, they represent an idealistic challenge to the underpinnings of the capitalist state.

A couple of days ago, while speaking on Fareed Zakaria GPS on CNN, I touched on such vital questions during a roundtable panel discussion [apparently the entire segment is unavailable, though you can watch this snippet which unfortunately does not include me]. The other guests included Moises Naim, a Venezuelan writer and columnist who was previously associated with IESA, a conservative business school in Caracas which pushed economic reforms eschewed by Chavez. We were also joined by Rory Carroll of the Guardian newspaper.

With Naim staking out the predictable anti-Chavez right, maybe Zakaria thought I would take up the full role of Chavez partisan. At the beginning of the interview, the CNN host turned to me and asked, "you like Chavez, right?" It's a perfectly reasonable question, though I wasn't entirely sure how to respond. Discussions about Chavez tend to split between ideological partisans on both sides, and there's often very little space for additional views. As readers are aware, I have some mixed feelings about populism, a very polemical subject in Latin America. In the end, I think I answered something to the effect of "it's a mixed bag," though I might have easily added "it's complicated!"

It's difficult to convey a minority within a minority viewpoint sometimes, though hopefully the viewers will have understood that I am critical of Chavez --- not from the right but from the left. I said that Chavez was wrong to have embraced Bashar al-Assad of Syria and Muammar Qaddafi of Libya, which in the long run discredited Venezuela amongst the international left and revolutionaries associated with the Arab Spring.

In an effort to move the conversation into provocative territory, I also argued that Chavez had actually not gone too far but not far enough. Whatever the problems with the cooperatives, I declared, they should be improved upon in an effort to promote worker democracy. Predictably, Naim trashed the cooperatives and went on a rant about how Chavez had wrecked the economy. Rather disappointingly for a leftist Guardian columnist, Carroll kind of chimed in by pointing to flaws in the cooperative system.

I hope that the media will continue to touch upon Chavez's political legacy, and particularly the more radical and anti-capitalist measures which deserve more systematic attention and scrutiny. Perhaps, socialist constituencies within the Bolivarian camp or even anarchists can force likely presidential winner Maduro to deepen the ongoing process of social transformation. It's not an easy task, however, because Maduro --- like Chavez before him --- also answers to rival constituencies such as the managerial capitalist class.

As Latin America and the wider world ponders the post-Chavez landscape, it's hardly clear where the left goes from here. While Chavez radicalized the Venezuelan people through innovative programs, his haphazard government failed to follow through on lasting bottom up revolutionary change. Though populists like Chavez mobilize the people, they typically only go so far and never overturn the social order. If anything, Maduro seems more cautious and diplomatic than Chavez and seems to eschew the inflammatory rhetoric of his mentor.

Perhaps, Rafael Correa of Ecuador may inherit the Chavez mantle. Like his Venezuelan mentor, Correa is a populist who also employs fiery rhetoric to mobilize the masses. He is pretty popular, too, having just won reelection in a landslide. Whether he has the vision or even the desire to transform Ecuador into a radical social laboratory, however, is open to doubt. To be sure, the Ecuadoran has some interesting ideas about climate change and challenging the Global North on global warming, but overall Correa seems pretty intent on pursuing the extractive economy and this hardly bodes well for his relations with social forces on the ground. Over in Bolivia, meanwhile, Evo Morales also made noises about climate change at one time but even he has run afoul of the Indians who dislike the government's boondoggle projects.

From about 2002 to 2006, before he started to pursue more questionable and retrograde policies, Hugo Chavez injected a welcome note of idealism into Latin politics. If it wants to be successful, the next generation of regional leaders should think about taking up some of Chavez's empowering ideas such as economic cooperatives, ALBA barter, alternative currencies and communal councils, while avoiding all of the potential downsides like patronage networks and cronyism. If future leaders can build upon such an agenda, while incorporating concerns over climate change and the extractive economy, they just might succeed in bringing about long-term revolutionary change and not just charismatic populism which can often prove transitory or even ephemeral.

Tectonic political developments today as the world seeks to come to terms with Hugo Chavez's death and the late populist leader's true legacy. As readers of my writing will know I have been somewhat critical of the Bolivarian Revolution over the years, though truly it has been a sad day. Whatever one thinks of Chavez, he certainly managed to bring about fundamental change for millions of people through his movement.

At any rate, I just went in for an interview with John Fugelsang on Current TV's Viewpoint. Also speaking on the panel was former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela, Jeffrey Davidow. Unfortunately, the video no longer seems to exist online.

What is more, I just concluded an interview with the CBC of Canada [can't find online, but some comments incorporated here.

And, just now concluded roundtable on HuffPost Live with yet another U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela, Charles Shapiro. Apparently, the link has been taken down, however.

For a more extensive interview, check out my exchange with Sam Seder of Majority Report which is available here.

For a wider discussion of Chavez's relationship with Hollywood, see my quotes in The Grio today as well. And don't forget to see my earlier articles about Oliver Stone and Danny Glover too.

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To read an update to this article, click here.

Just who, exactly, is in charge of Venezuela right now? That was the question posed to me late last night by al-Jazeera [the video, apparently, is unavailable online]. It's a perfectly reasonable question, though few seem to have much of a sense of what is happening behind the scenes. The issue has recently come to a head due to President Chavez's longstanding illness and inability to attend his own inauguration. The Venezuelan Supreme Court, meanwhile, has stated that Chavez may postpone the inauguration to a future date, though the opposition has cried foul.

The confusion has led some Venezuelans to wonder who might actually be in control. Officially speaking, Vice President Nicolas Maduro is now the de facto leader of the country, and would probably run as Chavez's official candidate in the event of new elections. Believe it or not, however, the Venezuelan constitution is subject to some interpretation in the event of problematic presidential successions. Some experts say the inauguration can be postponed, while others claim that Assembly Speaker Diosdado Cabello must declare a caretaker government and then call for new elections.

Whatever the case, uncertainty over the succession could cause major disruptions to the Venezuelan political system. As I remarked to al-Jazeera, the longer this crisis plays out the greater the chances for instability and unrest, similar to the 2002-2004 period when the opposition launched strikes and other destabilization in an effort to topple Chavez from power. Also unknown is the future political role of the military: presumably Chavez still commands a lot of influence over the armed forces though the succession crisis could give rise to division within the ranks.

What might be the role of the U.S. in this unfolding drama? During my interview, I suggested that Obama might pursue a cautious course for the time being, careful to avoid the impression of choosing sides. When the Bush administration blatantly allied itself with the right wing opposition in 2002, and Chavez defeated a short-lived coup, Washington was completely humiliated. To be sure, Obama may see opportunity in this crisis, but don't expect him to take sides any time soon.

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As Chavez fights for his life, eyes are turning to Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela's Foreign Minister, who is viewed as a likely political successor. When asked to comment by USA Today reporter Peter Wilson, I expressed doubts about Maduro's ability to unite diverse constituencies within Chavez's PSUV party. Furthermore, as readers of this website are aware, I am skeptical about all the possible Chavez successors including Maduro, Diosdado Cabello and Hugo's brother Adan.

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Though certainly devastating in an environmental, economic and even psychological sense, Hurricane Sandy may lead to significant long-term political change. Already, activists affiliated with Occupy Wall Street have fanned out across New York to provide disaster relief to the neediest. For "Occupy," the storm provides an opportunity to broaden a movement which in recent months had seemed to be on the verge of disintegration. As the movement matures, there has been some talk of rebranding as evidenced by this "Occupy Sandy" web page.
For Occupy, the storm represents a kind of coming of age and in the long-term relief efforts might serve to re-energize the movement along environmental lines. Such a change comes none too soon. Whatever its initial strengths, Occupy later suffered when it failed to provide a coherent and long-term vision for society. In hindsight, it is easy to see how the group's anti-establishment rhetoric and outlook only propelled the movement so far.
 
It's unfortunate that it took a devastating hurricane to alert the public to the dangers of climate change, but belatedly some national and state politicians seem to be waking up to global warming. Perversely, however, the issue of climate change remained largely absent from the presidential campaign, and both candidates seemed wedded to the underlying mantra of endless economic growth, a doctrine which has contributed to extreme weather in the first place. The planet urgently needs to act on climate change, but to question fundamental assumptions about the economy is to risk derision and probably even ridicule within the present context of U.S. politics. Given such constraints, how should Occupy promote its environmental agenda?

Return of the Humble Oyster?

It's a challenging dilemma for activists because climate change is a very abstract concept to convey and most people have difficulty grasping the true scope of the problem, not to mention the radical economic and technological changes which will necessarily be in order. In light of such limitations, perhaps the most central thing for activists to recognize —- at least initially —- is the importance of stressing non-threatening symbolism over ideology. As the city that inspired other Occupy movements across the country, New York should take the lead in developing such catchy symbols, and fortunately some have already come up with intriguing suggestions.

Curiously, a recent New York Times article suggests that the humble oyster could play a vital role in combating the ravages of climate change within the metropolitan area. At one time, oysters built up enormous underwater reefs, which protected New York from storm surges. "Just as corals protect tropical islands," the piece notes, "these oyster beds created undulation and contour on the harbor bottom that broke up wave action before it could pound the shore with its full force."

At one time, the bivalve population numbered up into the trillions and assisted in coastal defense all along the eastern seaboard from Boston in the north to Washington in the south. Ingeniously, oyster beds also play a vital environmental role through efficient filtration. Indeed, a single oyster can filter as much as 50 gallons of water per day. Such filtration allows marsh grasses to grow and extend their root structure, which in turn helps to stabilize and hold shores together.

Environmental Symbolism

The humble oyster, then, has fulfilled a vital environmental purpose but has also played an important role in the local economy. Few are aware of such history, and it's a theme that activists might want to touch upon in the coming weeks and months. As far back as the 1600s, the Lenape Indians of New York ate oysters and discarded the shells in large so-called middens. When they first arrived, the Dutch observed that the estuary of the lower Hudson River still contained 350 square miles of oyster beds. Oysters were so abundant, in fact, that the Dutch called Ellis Island "Oyster Island" and Liberty Island "Great Oyster Island." Later, oysters contributed greatly to the mercantile wealth and international renown of the burgeoning New Amsterdam colony.

The British, who inherited New Amsterdam from the Dutch, also went crazy for oysters and the bivalve was equally consumed by both rich and poor. Even before bagels, pizza and food trucks became the talk of the town, cheap oysters were New York's original street food. Every kind of gastronomic creation was marketed, from oyster pie to oyster stew. Oystering later proved to be a particularly popular trade amongst free African American slaves who opened oyster bars in Lower Manhattan. Staten Island, a district hard hit by recent Hurricane Sandy, was also an important center of the oyster trade and by the mid-19th century a number of black oystermen chose to settle within the local community.

New Yorkers embraced original oyster varieties, which grew up to nine inches and longer, including the now extinct Rockaways and Bluepoint from Long Island. Though over dredging later reduced the local bivalve population, New Yorkers continued their mollusk eating habit by encouraging oyster farming. Eventually, oystering became one of the city's biggest industries and by 1880 New York was known as the oyster capital of the world. Unfortunately, however, unsound sewer systems led to the dumping of typhoid and cholera-carrying bacteria into the waterways, while industrial pollutants rendered oysters inedible. In 1916, a local typhoid epidemic led to an official ban on oystering and the industry, which had led to such fabulous wealth, died out virtually overnight.
 
For the Occupy movement, which had fallen into a state of torpor prior to New York's recent environmental disaster, Hurricane Sandy reshuffles the deck. Perhaps, in light of the catastrophe, the public may be more receptive to political activism with a strong ecological component. Nevertheless, Occupy needs to be careful lest it alienate many New Yorkers who are not yet ready for the coming radical debate about how to transform the economy in a green and environmental sense. It is here, however, where the humble oyster comes into play. If they are shrewd, activists might appeal to the mainstream by declaring the need for greater coastal defense and the repopulation of local oyster beds. As they recruit a wider following, activists might even bring up New York's forgotten environmental history which will come as a surprise to many.

Climate Change, Storm Surges and the Toxic Cocktail

So much for theoretical abstractions. But pragmatically speaking, how can Occupy achieve its long-term goals? Fortunately, even before Hurricane Sandy activists had turned their attention to valuable environmental work within the New York City area. Take, for example, oyster farmers operating within the area of the Gowanus Canal in the borough of Brooklyn. There, local residents, volunteers and young students carried out valuable oyster gardening projects, which have fostered a sense of environmental stewardship in the community.

At one time, the Gowanus was an ecological gem and early Dutch accounts made note of gigantic oysters in local waters, which were literally "the size of dinner plates." These days, however, the Gowanus is in dire need of ecological renewal and recently the Environmental Protection Agency declared the area a federal Superfund site for cleanup. Such efforts come none too soon: for years the canal was fouled by industrial waste and light was unable to penetrate the water so as to sustain life. Though some eels, bluefish and jellyfish now ply the polluted waters, oysters are hardly on the menu. In 2007, a 12-foot minke whale calf infamously nicknamed "Sludgie" perished near the mouth of the canal after it failed to find its way back to open seas.

Like Staten Island, Lower Manhattan and other low-lying areas within the vicinity, the Gowanus is vulnerable to storm surges and the ravages of climate change. In the case of the Gowanus, however, residents are doubly concerned, owing to the threat of toxic overflow from the canal. In the wake of Hurricane Sandy, the Gowanus flooded local residents' homes in oily sludge. As they clean up from the storm, many wonder how they will cope with future floods. Such concerns are well warranted given extensive future plans to develop the area and build new apartment complexes.

New Political Headquarters for Occupy

Is it time for Occupy to search for a new home? Ever since Mayor Bloomberg evicted protesters from their base in Zuccotti Park, the movement has lacked a fixed base. If they try to go back to Lower Manhattan, there is little doubt that activists will face the same level of political repression, if not more. Given these difficulties, perhaps establishing a headquarters in Brooklyn is not such a bad idea. If they head across the river, activists will be under less psychological pressure and could devote more time and consideration to the reformulation of their movement along environmental lines.

The Gowanus, with its recent history of ecological and oyster conservation, is probably just as good an area as any when it comes to launching a new base. Though Brooklyn is far from the corridors of power, the Gowanus is full of prime real estate and vacant buildings which could serve as a future political headquarters. If they venture into the neighborhood, activists will find a very diverse local crowd, including hipsters, artists, environmentalists and working class blacks and Latinos. The liberal enclave of Park Slope and the nation's largest food cooperative lay just a few blocks away.

All movements have their ebb and flow. In an earlier incarnation, Occupy raised awareness about the nation's corrupt economic elites and social injustice. With the more recent turn toward "Occupy Sandy," we seem to be entering a kind of intermediate phase, which could signal the turn toward something new. In the wake of the storm, activists have established some street credibility by assisting with everyday disaster relief. In the coming months, however, Occupy should hone its message in an effort to bring new people into the movement. Perhaps it's time to start connecting the dots between the earlier social justice work and climate change.

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